2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
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Record-shattering heat in Minnesota this week had meteorologists scrambling. Peaking at 100°F (37.6°C) in Hallock — just miles from the Canadian border — the record heat event is expected to continue through Tuesday.
Temperatures will be 30-40°F degrees above the historical average for May and shatter daily record highs by several degrees across the region.
As summer approaches, anxiety about the upcoming hurricane season grows, and the outlook isn’t providing any comfort.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Three primary oceanic oscillations drive global hurricane activity.
Click here to read my detailed explanation of oceanic and atmospheric conditions affecting hurricane activity.
Right now, we’re in an ENSO-neutral phase and expected to maintain that through the summer.
The PDO is still negative, and the AMO is still positive, creating the second-most dangerous possible conditions for Atlantic hurricane activity.
Consistent with historical hurricane climatology, Colorado State’s 2025 hurricane activity forecast projects a higher-than-average season this year.
Still reeling from the impacts of the 2024 hurricane season — which saw 18 named systems, 11 hurricanes and 5 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes, and was the third costliest season on record — concerns are growing over how a greatly-diminished NOAA and FEMA can handle another potentially-devastating season.
One-third of FEMA’s full-time staff (more than 2,000 people) have been fired as part of DOGE’s targeted layoffs since January.
Yesterday, news broke that training programs for state and local response authorities were either dramatically reduced or eliminated entirely, just as state operations begin preparations for the coming hurricane season.
Organizers of April's National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans canceled several FEMA-led sessions - including one aimed at helping emergency managers make evacuation decisions during hurricanes - after FEMA staff dropped out due to a ban prohibiting non-deployment travel.
The United States hasn’t been this ill-prepared for hurricane season since 2005.
I lived on the Mississippi Gulf Coast that year.
It’s not something anyone should ever have to relive.