Initial surveys show about 90% of the town was destroyed. Scientists who closely monitory Switzerland’s Alpine glacial stability warned the village days prior, and the town of about 300 was evacuated.

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While prices for monthly access across Substack are being raised, I’m dropping mine.

I incur some costs in the work I do, but I have always believed in making information accessible when it’s critical for the public to know.

That’s why I’m dropping the price of my monthly and annual subscriptions for new subscribers.

The average Substack subscription costs $8 per month.

I’m dropping mine to $1.75 per month, or $17.50 for one year.

Click here to subscribe!

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They come with little warning and can erase entire communities in minutes — even seconds.

There’s no four-day lead-up to prepare like we often have with major hurricanes, and the winds of these storms can far exceed the most violent tropical cyclones.

In those few moments before one hits, espe…

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The complexities involved with financial attribution of global warming, met with highly-coordinated disinformation campaigns funded by fossil fuel companies, prevented meaningful development on this front for decades.

Since 2017, however, more than 100 lawsuits have been filed each year to hold those companies accountable for the damage they’ve done to the planet.

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In the past three decades, however, tornado activity has exhibited a notable shift from Tornado Alley to Dixie Alley.

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After the measles vaccine was introduced in the early 1960s, cases in the United States went from an average of 3—4 million cases per year to less than 5,000 per year.

Pre-vaccine, most cases and deaths were among children, with an average of 6,000 measles-related deaths each year.

Following a resurgence in 1989-1991, the United States took additional steps to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold in the country, adding a second MMR vaccine to the recommended schedule.

As a result of those efforts, measles was eradicated in the United States 25 years ago.

For decades, measles outbreaks were confined to isolated communities and didn’t pose a serious threat to the general population.

For example, the dramatic spike in measles cases in 2019 (the worst outbreak since 1992) were largely confined to unvaccinated Jewish Orthodox communities in the New York City - Jersey region, imported from those who had traveled to Israel.

But the mainstreaming of vaccine conspiracy theories in recent years now threatens to undo 65 years of progress in eliminating measles in this country.

Community protection from measles is maintained when 95% or more of the population is fully vaccinated.

Today, only 12 states meet that threshold, with some of the worst states (ex: Idaho, Florida) dropping as low as 79.6%.

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American Eagle Flight No. 5342 crashed into a Sikorsky H-60 Black Hawk helicopter at around 9 p.m. Wednesday night, January 29, 2025.

The flight was preparing for landing at Reagan National Airport, inbound from Wichita, Kansas and carrying 64 people.

The Black Hawk helicopter the flight collided with was a “Priority Air Transport” flight, designated for transporting senior U.S. officials, and was crewed by three US Army members.

All 67 people are believed to be deceased.

This is the deadliest crash in America since November 2001.

And while the families were waiting for notifications and the country was waiting for answers, Trump let the country down by race-baiting the disaster.

Trump blamed Obama, Biden and DEI initiatives in an unhinged press conference after the event, even though records released by the US Army show that all three members of the US military who were on the helicopter were white men.

Trump went further and blamed Pete Buttigeg, though under his tenure as Secretary of Transportation there were no air disasters or crashes.

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If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know I’m a survivor of multiple tornadoes and some of the worst hurricanes on record (Hurricanes Georges (1998), Katrina (2005), etc).

I’ve lived through disasters in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida and even New York (Snowmageddon of …

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This 1.5°C target was set due to the scientific consensus that it represents a threshold beyond which the risks of severe climate impacts (such as extreme weather, sea level rise, and loss of biodiversity) would significantly increase.

Scientists and policymakers emphasized the need for urgent and robust actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid crossing this threshold.

Climate scientists confirmed grim news about that goal last week: we breached 1.5°C in 2024, which was also the hottest year on record (taking the title from 2023).

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Not one mentioned climate change.

The connection between climate change and wildfires is among the clearest of all global warming-enhanced disasters.

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What global oceanic systems impact hurricane development?

Hurricanes are heat engines, drawing their power from both the warm ocean waters and the instability of the atmosphere.

There are three primary oceanic oscillations that have a major impact on hurricane development - El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Each of these operates at different timescales and has different variables impacting its relative strength.

When you run analysis on hurricane frequency and intensity along with all three oscillations, patterns emerge that demonstrate the influence of each of these systems.

From the above chart, you can see that combination of events that produce the lowest average number of storms (ENSO+/AMO-/PDO-) has less than half the average activity as the combination with the most storms (ENSO-/AMO+/PDO-).

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If you like following hurricane and climate news, be sure to subscribe below because that’s my bread and butter.

The last hurricane outlook will be published at 8 pm tonight, November 30, 2024. Fingers crossed I’m not jinxing us by releasing this before the last projection!

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I won’t give you my annual spiel about the harm caused by the mass meat production industry on global climate, regional environment and workers. I’ll save that for the next Earth Day, which marks 15 years of vegetarianism for me and my family.

I also won’t go into why you should disinvite your MAGA uncle, aunt, cousin, etc., though I hope you respect you…

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Disaster Briefs are your semi-regular summaries and headlines from around the world about natural and man-made disasters, climate change, disease and health, and international conflict. See endnotes for resources used in putting this report together. Data is retrieved, analyzed and summarized on the day of publication unless otherwise noted.

After the final data for 2024 is complete, I will publish a comprehensive analysis and report on the year’s major meteorologic, geologic, and public health disasters for the year.

Meteorological/Climatological

Tropical Storm Sara caused (and is still causing) widespread flooding as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula at a snail’s pace, with expected rainfall totaling more than 30” of rain in some areas. Sara is expected to re-enter the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday and strengthen it heads W/NW toward Florida.

More than half-a-million people have been evacuated in the Philippines in anticipation of Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi). With top winds recorded at 240 km/h (160 mph), Pepito is the strength of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Pepito/Man-yi underwent rapid intensification on Friday, jumping from a tropical storm early Friday morning to a super typhoon early Saturday. The increase of 55 mph in 24 hours well exceeds the definition of rapid intensification, which is 35 mph in 24 hours.

Hurricane season officially ends November 30.

Eastern Ukraine’s drought entered its eighth month this week, which continues to exacerbate issues for the nation as they also fight the Russian invasion.

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I was 16 years old when the eye of Hurricane Katrina passed by my hometown in coastal Mississippi. The center of her eyewall was 27.82 miles west of my home. The eye at that point — on August 29, 2005 — was about 25 miles wide, putting me and my family in the worst possible location for the worst of the storm’s impacts.

Hurricane Katrina was a rare beast — its double eyewall, record-shattering storm surge, intense low pressure, and the bathymetry of where it hit made it a once-in-a-lifetime storm.

That one storm erased hundreds of years of history along the Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf Coasts. It demonstrated the best and the worst of our institutions — the government, media, and NGO’s.

It reshaped my understanding of the world, and inspired me to seek out answers about how these “perfect storms” form and devastate communities.

Today, after a four-year detour, I’m a climate specialist for the federal government working directly with at-risk communities to prepare for storms in a warmed world.

And I want to make clear to all my readers where the facts stand on climate change and hurricanes, so that you, too, can better inform others.

Because Hurricane Milton is a climate-crisis fueled storm.

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Forward speed

Hurricanes are moving slower and stalling near shorelines. The slower the rate that storms move across the abnormally warm ocean basins, the bigger and stronger they can become. The slower they move over land, the more rainfall and damage they inflict. Forward speed has decreased by 17% in the Atlantic basin since 1900 (IPCC, Page 1587).

Rapid Intensification

Higher sea surface temperatures and lower salinity increase the amount of moisture available to storms, fueling rapid intensification. But major bursts of thunderstorms far from the storm’s center can also fuel this process, even if overall conditions don’t favor rapid development.

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours, making it the third-fastest acceleration in history, behind only 2005’s Wilma (the strongest hurricane ever recorded) and Felix (2007) in terms of rapid intensification.

Rainfall

Scientists have already observed significant increases in rainfall from hurricanes over the last century. Hurricane Helene, which hit Florida before inundating Appalachia just a few weeks ago, formed in the Gulf of Mexico above record-hot sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Climate change caused a 40-70% increase in rainfall during Hurricane Helene, and has caused a 10-15% increase in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones overall.

Wind speeds

Hurricane windspeeds are, on average, 11% more intense because of global warming. More major hurricane events are occurring compared to prior centuries, as well.

Mean Latitude and Seasonality

One of the clearest and direct impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones is the poleward shift of peak intensity for tropical cyclones. That means as warm waters expand the tropics, tropical storms are migrating northward, too. See my video about Hurricane Kirk here.

With waters generally warmer throughout the year, more hurricanes are appearing outside of historical peak months, extending the season.

Minimum Pressure, Storm Surge

While we classify hurricanes based solely on maximum sustained winds, minimum central pressure better fits models and observations of total storm damage. And although central pressure and wind speed are closely related, they are not identical, and central pressure is widely regarded as the more reliable measure of storm strength.

Research from LSU shows that minimum central pressure 48-72 hours before landfall is the best measure for estimating storm surge. Hurricane Katrina (2005), for example, set the record for hurricane storm surge at 28 feet in south Mississippi. While wind speeds at landfall were measured at Category 3 strength¹, the storm’s minimum pressure bottomed out at 902 mbar — making it third strongest hurricane by central pressure to ever make landfall in the United States (behind only 1969s’s Camille and the 1935 Labor Day Storm).

Milton became the fifth-strongest Atlantic Basin hurricane on record Monday, October 7, 2024, reaching a minimum pressure of 897 millibars — about 54 hours before expected landfall. While surge is driven by a multitude of factors, including track, bathymetry, forward speed, etc., this does not bode well from an area of Florida that’s previous peak storm tide² was 10 feet back in 1921. Worse still, Milton will make landfall during high-tide, adding 2.4 feet of water to the total storm tide level.

The previous record storm surge for the Tampa area — 7.8 ft — was broken two weeks ago when Helene struck Florida.

Sea level rise.

Global sea levels have risen about 9 inches since 1880, and 4 inches just since 1993, and are expected to rise up to 10 feet more by the end of the century. In the Tampa Bay area, sea levels are rising at a faster rate (5.8 mm/yr) than the global average (3.4 mm/yr).

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Number of extra-tropical systems maintaining tropical storm wind speed and hurricane features through France and into Germany since 1851:

0. Null. Zéro.

By Thursday, that number will be 1.

Watch my summary on this storm’s rare and exceptional track.

The Sun Coast area of Florida has never had a direct hit from a major hurricane with a minimum central pressure below 930 mbar – at least not since record keeping began in 1851. The latest models show Milton’s minimum pressure as 911 mbar.

Hurricane Ian (2022) was the strongest storm to ever hit the west-central Gulf Coast of Florida, but did so running mostly parallel along its coastline – not a direct, perpendicular hit, which causes the most extreme levels of storm surge and damage. So did Charley (2004). The 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane hooked toward Tampa, but the storm’s track and axis still wouldn’t be considered a direct, perpendicular hit.

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Before we get into the very active basins, I want to share a bit about my family’s experience with Helene, and the political toxicity that leads to disasters like what is unfolding in Tennessee and North Carolina.

Hurricane Helene

While forecasters will continue to debate whether Helene was a Category 3 or 4 storm at landfall, the real impacts are being felt hundreds of miles from the Florida coast.

Large swaths of Tennessee and North Carolina remain underwater today, nearly four days after the storm’s landfall in Florida’s Big Bend.

Helene maintained tropical depression strength as it looped over Kentucky this weekend, exacerbating the already life-threatening deluge.

My sister moved from Maine to Greeneville, Tennessee earlier this year. She lives downriver form the Nolichucky Dam – a 110-year-old structure not built to withstand hurricane winds and rain.

The aging dam hasn’t even been inspected since 2020, even though it’s scheduled for inspection every two years, and the results of the inspection don’t state the condition of the damn at the time of inspection.

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